It is day two of the waiting period and the early morning greeted us with some stormy and messy 10-12 foot conditions.  The swell is escalating very quickly and soon pipe will be completely washed out and non-contestable, thus ‘Lei Day’ number two has been called.  The forecast still looks promising for later in the week (See Surfline Forecast Details Below) so be sure to check back in tomorrow morning at 7:30am (HST) for the next call.

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REPORT FROM SURFLINE.com, The official forecaster of the Volcom Pipe Pro:

Brief Overview:  A large NW swell rapidly builds Monday morning, peaking mid day through the afternoon. Although light/variable wind will prevail, Pipe is expected to become unruly and washed out. This swell will then back down Tuesday through mid week. Further out, a new/solid WNW swell lines up for Thurs/Fri (31st-1st) with ENE veering East Trades providing good conditions.

SWELL ANALYSIS AND LONG-RANGE OUTLOOK: Thanks to a recent storm that developed within close proximity (roughly 1000–1500 miles out to the NW-NNW), a large and consistent NW swell (315-335 deg) will rapidly build into the North Shore in the AM hours on Monday, peaking mid day through the afternoon with about 13-14′+ deepwater swell at 14-16 seconds. Pipe is expected to become washed out on Monday, which will likely continue into Tuesday morning as well. NOTE – Expect lots of water to be moving around with strong currents on Mon/Tues, especially on Monday as this swell moves in fast and peaks. This swell will steadily back down Tuesday through the middle of the week, gradually becoming more manageable.

Beyond that; we’re currently watching another storm that recently pushed off Japan with a good fetch for Hawaii. Furthermore, over the next few days or so, we’ll see multiple centers of low pressure gradually rotate around one another over the western half of the North Pacific (including the storm that pushed out Monday’s swell) to form one large complex system. At this point, a solid dose of new and overlapping WNW-NW swells (295-325 deg) will move into the North Shore for Thurs/Fri the 31st-1st, building in Wednesday night the 30th. Although not as large as Monday’s swell (which is actually a good thing for the event), this WNW energy will still offer double to triple overhead+ sets for Pipe, before backing down into the weekend of the 2nd-3rd.

Over the next few days or so, we’ll continue to monitor the progress of this large developing complex storm system over the Northwest Pacific, as there is good potential for more NW pulses to spawn from it in the longer range. Stay tuned for updates!

WIND/WEATHER OUTLOOK

A front pushes across the central North Pacific and north of the Islands, dragging the weaker tail-end of the trough through the islands over the next couple days. Overall, Mon/Tues will see light/variable wind and mostly cloudy skies (good chance for rain showers). Then high pressure will gradually build back over the region Wed-Fri, bringing a gradual rise of light to moderate NE veering ENE-East Trades and partly cloudy/sunny skies. Next front may approach the region on the weekend of the 2nd-3rd.

Also Check out these Surfline features on the Mechanics of Pipeline:

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